Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

(Austrian) Economics, Nanny Statism, Vulgar Politics
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According to this Boston Globe article, How facts backfire, people are not persuaded by facts, and this does not bode well for the future of democracy as people’s perceptions (and voting decisions) are unaltered by “evidence”.  In one experiment researchers ask people to guess how much the government spends on welfare and how much they should spend.  One group is told the “correct” answer of 1% ahead of time, while the other one is not …

There are also some cases where directness works. Kuklinski’s welfare study suggested that people will actually update their beliefs if you hit them “between the eyes” with bluntly presented, objective facts that contradict their preconceived ideas. He asked one group of participants what percentage of its budget they believed the federal government spent on welfare, and what percentage they believed the government should spend. Another group was given the same questions, but the second group was immediately told the correct percentage the government spends on welfare (1 percent). They were then asked, with that in mind, what the government should spend. Regardless of how wrong they had been before receiving the information, the second group indeed adjusted their answer to reflect the correct fact.

Apparently some ideologues are unpersuaded by facts, but others manipulate them to justify their agendas. Looking at US Government Spending, lets find out what government welfare spending is …

If one excludes about $987,400,000,000.00 dollars in social security/retirement, and excludes another $1,046,600,000,000.00 dollars in education, and excludes another $1,090,200,000,000.00 dollars in health care expenses, and includes only federal spending leaving out about another $200,000,000,000.00 dollars in state spending.  That leaves about $557,000,000,000.00 dollars in the welfare category, which is about 15% of total federal-only spending, and about 8.3% of total government spending including the states.

However, if one digs down into the sub-categories of the welfare category and excludes another $194,000,000,000.00 dollars in unemployment, and excludes another $77,000,000,000.00 dollars in housing, and excludes another $186,000,000,000.00 dollars in “social exclusion” (which sure looks like welfare, but lets give them the benefit of the doubt). That leaves about $99,000,000,000.00 in the “Family and Children” category.  Which would be about 2.6% of federal-only spending, and about 1.5% of total government spending including the states, which in theory could be rounded down to 1%.

So in theory it could indeed be argued that the correct amount that government spends on welfare is 1%, but it could be better argued that facts, statistics, and semantics are being manipulated using a pointless definition of “welfare” to associate it with all entitlement spending in general and confound people who correctly and intuitively know we live in a world where entitlements have run amok.

The article is right about one thing. Some people (including the mainstream media) are not persuaded by facts, and the future does not bode well for democracy (not to be confused with liberty).

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Is Libertarian Legal Activism Worthwhile?

Firearms, Statism
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These quotes from 1976 and 2010 (via “Snowflakes in Hell“) suggest an answer:

Then:

“Our ultimate goal — total control of handguns in the United States — is going to take time. My estimate is seven to ten years. The first problem is to slow down the increasing number of handguns being produced and sold in this country. The second problem is to get handguns registered. And the final problem is to make the possession of all handguns and all handgun ammunition — except for the military, policemen, licensed security guards, licensed sporting clubs, and licensed gun collectors-totally illegal.”

–Pete Shields, July 1976, President of National Coalition to Control Handguns (which later became Handgun Control Inc. and then the Brady Campaign)

Now:

“It is settled law. If I were taking a law school exam today, I would say, yes, you have got an individual right to have a gun in your home for self-defense.”

— Paul Helmke, President of the Brady Campaign, June 28, 2010

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The long, slow flight from the US Dollar

(Austrian) Economics
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Fortune magazine has an interesting piece summing up some recent trends in the dollar. While there has not been a radical or frantic dumping of the dollar, central banks and private investors continue to distance themselves from the US Dollar. The piece notes that other dollars, namely the Australian and Canadian ones, are gaining in prestige:

A new report from Morgan Stanley analyst Emma Lawson confirms what many had suspected: the dollar is firmly on its way to losing its status as the reserve currency of the world. We already knew that central banks have preferred gold to dollars, and that they’re even selling their gold for cash; now, according to Lawson’s data, it seems that those central banks prefer almost anything to dollars.

The new competition over reserve currency is interesting for more than its economics since it is an important political issue. The nation that can build up its own currency as a reserve currency will expand its ability to inflate and incur debt with less fear of inflation.

The US has benefited from this situation for decades. As the Fed inflates to finance deficit spending and to “stimulate” consumer spending, dollars are eventually absorbed by foreign central banks, put in reserves and out of circulation. The United States has managed to stave off the effects of reckless money printing for decades thanks to the willingness of foreign investors and central banks to sit on dollars as a store of value.

Now the demand for the dollar is fading away slowly. This won’t mean sudden hyperinflation, however, since the economy is still in terrible shape, and even if a boatload of dollars were to return to our shores right now, the lack of lending and spending, as a consequence of deflating portfolios across the land, will keep prices relatively contained, at least in the short- and possibly medium-term.

The good news is that the fall of the dollar will mean that the United States will slowly have to come to the realization that it won’t be able to engage in endless deficit spending and monetization of debt without feeling the consequences of runaway inflation. The empire has been financed by a dollar that was the world’s reserve currency. Those days are coming to an end.

The long, slow flight from the US Dollar Read Post »

Purchasing power gains or losses respective to the U.S. of several countries

(Austrian) Economics, Mercantilism, Protectionism
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Market-oriented reforms such as privatization, deregulation and tariff decreases being the clear and unequivocal factors.

In PPP terms, asigning a quotient of 1 to the U.S.

Country         1980     1994     2008

United States      1.000       1.000       1.000
Australia                 .841           .770          .837
Canada                     .905          .818           .843
Britain                      .688          .705           .765
France                      .780          .730           .713
Germany                 .803          .812           .763
Italy                          .756          .754           .675
Sweden                    .868          .777           .794
Switzerland          1.146          .987           .915

Asia

Hong Kong            .547          .845           .948
Japan                       .732           .815           .736
Singapore              .577           .899         1.064

Latin America

Argentina              .395           .300          .309
Chile                        .210            .251           .311

Source: World Bank.

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Two questions on anti-IP

IP Law, Libertarian Theory, Mercantilism, Protectionism, Technology
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As a lecturer of ECN101 at USFQ, Ecuador, I regularly take my students through all the basic tenets of Economic Science. Of course, I have a primordially Austrian approach, but I make sure to give them an overview of the current debates among schools of thought and even within them (did someone say Bizantine arguments ad infinitum?)

Using Googlegroups, I use the email list format to discuss any and all subjects, and last night it was IP’s turn (i.e. so-called “intellectual property”).

After watching this one minute video, the immediate reaction was rejection, followed by two questions I find of interest to TLS readers.

1.- Does copying mean I can plagiarize or make fakes of arts and crafts?

2.- How about the effort the creator puts into his/her work? Doesn’t a copy make the original loose value?

To which I answer through some thoughts on IP in an attempt to answer both questions and discuss some additional angles of the “IP problem”.

———

The commonly used example of “wrong” copying is movies. But the very same person will have replicas of Rembrandt at home without even noticing the irony of the situation. As a matter of fact people can clearly distinguish between original/legit watches and fakes, and the same goes for anything else. The reason we prefer originals brands is because it ensures quality meaning a sense of authenticity and/or flawlessness that comes from a direct relationship to the brand. And we all know how to buy originals: find a vendor you trust. Preferably, one authorized (perhaps exclusively for a geographical zone) by the producer itself.

When we imitate other people’s behavior (what pyschologists call “modelling”) we know it’s not real (from within) yet it may be a necessary step in personal growth. We grow up imitating. Then, we can modify and create.

So to begin with, we’re all cultural imitators. The amount of work that goes into creating a dance step, recipe or social rite has never in the past precluded people from imitating it faster. Learning implies by necessity a time-saving process where the student uses less time and trial&error (what we call the “learning curve”) to achieve the same. But the teacher does not charge for the content. He charges for his performance. The libraries have always been there for centuries gathering dust, yet we prefer to learn from someone in a structured, stimulating way.

So, to set an arbitrary line and say “now” or “from this point on” what are cultural patterns (copyright over dance steps), painting techniques or styles (aprentices of Manet or Kingman were paid to copy the style to perfection so he sold them under his name), writing styles (ghost writers, fan fiction, fan movies) is a further step down the path of foolishness.

But ok, what about commercial products. They are produced, after all, with the intention of profiting from their sale. But see, we have three components here: production, intention and sales. Some ideas never go into production or are underproduced to benefit producers with high(er) prices at the “expense” of consumers. Some goods are produced without an intention to sell them or with characteristics that render them commercially worthless. And finally, sales are not a certain result of attempts to sell. But in the market as much as in sports, it is neither conception, intention or trying that which wins over the public and serves it better. A long run of score-less matches will scare away most sports fans, in the same way that attempts to sell us things waste our time and patience if they don’t turn into real sales.

So, as we see, it’s not effort but results that which counts in generating welfare for our chosen public. In other words, it’s not effort but sales that which generates income in the division-of-labor. Sales. So it’s quite evident to me that if an inventor doesn’t find a way to hit the market first (remember, the market is a metaphor incarnated in a network of property title exchanges) it’s not only fair but good for mankind that others do serve the public with attractive products derived from his invention, design or recipe.

This of course has nothing to do with fraud and plagiarism. Claiming a Picasso is original when it isn’t or claiming you wrote “A Hundred Years of Solitude” is clearly deceiving. It has to be punished by the legal system but even if it isn’t, the market itself has exclusion, bad reputation and boycott mechanisms used all the time. And they would be even more intensively used if the State didn’t provide us with a fake sensation of security in that (and dozens of others) field. But a replica, a cd copy, an mp3 handed over to you is a very different thing. It takes nothing from the producer, and the only one who gets less value (if that is the case at all) than when buying original is yourself.

Last but not least: the fakes do not decrease the sales of the original good. They don’t in the absolute sense whenever both were available to be chosen instead of the other, but they don’t in the relative sense either: a bad pricing policy for lower income segments or regions of the world should always be blamed on the seller, not the unwilling customer. If Microsoft sold Windows 7 in low monthly installments in Latin America, the trend would start to change towards having the company’s support and other original product advantages. The same goes for $18 usd music albums from Virgin when besides a pretty box, there’s no profit (like memorabilia or a poster or anything of the sort) in not having just the mp3 version.

To those companies I say: Give us enough value for the price you ask, and we will prefer you over pirates. Meanwhile, piracy is your best ally or you would never know how badly you’re handling it all.

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