Finance

Animal Spirits with Chinese CharacteristicsThere are certain books in life that upon reading them you think to yourself “I feel not only smarter but this is exactly the book I would like to have written.”

And that is in summation what Animal Spirits with Chinese Characteristics embodies.  It is written by nine-year China veteran Mark DeWeaver, now the hedge fund manager of Quantrarian Capital Management in Washington DC.  In addition to having worked as a broker and financial analyst in Guangdong (the most populous province on the mainland) and Hong Kong, DeWeaver received his PhD in economics from the University of Hawaii.  The title alludes to the ‘animal spirits’ invoked seventy-five years ago by John Maynard Keynes to describe how emotions influence human behaviors.  The other part of the title comes from Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” (改革开放) liberalization process that began in 1978 – what Deng called “socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

One of the shortcomings of many China-related non-fiction books today is that they generally try to discuss something that is impossible to penetrate: how and why the Standing Committee makes decisions.  Volumes have been and will continue to be written about the purported inner workings of Zhongnanhai (中南海), the Party headquarters in Beijing, yet this amounts to little more than the modern-day equivalent of Kremlinology.  Or as the popular and fitting English expression germanely (sic) describes this seemingly futile divination activity: trying to read the tea leaves in China (tasseography). [Keep reading…]

{ 2 comments }

Over the past several months I have noticed on a number of blogs promote a Quixotic theory — an underlying desire for some kind of economic Armageddon in which:

1) US financial system collapses
2) ???
3) Gold owners become the new kings*

While I am certainly not a fan of the status quo, I just do not see much direct evidence to support the thesis that Apocalypse Now is just around the corner, if ever.

Other theories circulated by self-proclaimed financial contrarians are along the lines of:

1) Conspiring central bankers induce a global hyperinflationary storm
2) ???
3) No more politicians or central planners — everyone uses gold and silver*

Again, not that I am for the status quo — I certainly would love freer markets, freer trade, no war, etc. — but simply wishing for it to happen and nirvana happening does not follow.  It is a non sequitur.  Furthermore, wishful thinking is also fallacy.

Or in other words, if simply wishing for something X to happen made something X to actually occur, then every ideological goal would be achieved, including the ones that contradict one another!  Perhaps this desired apocalypse will take place sooner if it is blogged about more often!

Yet, in the event of another financial purge similar to 2008-2009, it is not like the central bankers and treasury policy makers in 200-some-odd countries are going to wake up the next day and resolve immediately to be “Austrian” or libertarian.  In fact, since 2008 central banks and treasuries have arguably become more emboldened and lionized.

Thus, there is academically crafting an ideal market process and then there is reality by which government intervention is the rule not the exception.  Those living within a reality distortion field are no better off financially than Y2K preppers, Millerites or doomsayers of yore (for more on apocaholic’s see also this excellent piece from Wired).

[Keep reading…]

{ 3 comments }

One of the best illustrations of hyperbole regarding China in some financial circles is the disingenuous belief that the PBoC, SAFE, CITIC and other Chinese agencies could use a mythical financial “nuclear” weapon by selling all of their US treasuries at one time — which in their RDF-minds would somehow decimate the US bond market.

And while I am hardly bedfellows with the Pentagon, some analysts at the DoD put together a well-reasoned bucket of cold water to throw on the faces of hysterics this election cycle.

Below are quotes from a thorough Bloomberg report (which is still blocked out here) regarding the DoD analysis: [Keep reading…]

{ 1 comment }

When should an entrepreneur or firm consume capital instead of accumulate it?  Earlier this week Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt debated techno-guru-investor Peter Thiel regarding innovation and finance — and never once used the word capital.

[Keep reading…]

{ 1 comment }

What is happening in China?

by on April 13, 2012 @ 8:58 am · 1 comment

in Business, Finance, Statism

[Note: a revised edition of this was originally scheduled to be published in an upcoming newsletter but I have (temporarily) moved back to Shanghai and think all this information should be pushed to a broader audience]

On March 15 Bo Xilai, a prominent Party secretary was publicly sacked.  A week later rumors of a coup were reported to have taken place by Bo’s allies in Zhongnanhai, the central leadership compound in Beijing.  Several days later a Ferrari crashed at 4am in the morning in Beijing but was immediately scrubbed from the media, prompting speculation that it was possibly driven by Bo’s playboy son.  And earlier this week Bo Xilai was officially removed from the Politburo while simultaneously his wife was arrested in connection to the murder of a British expat.

Quite a wild month.

[Keep reading…]

{ 1 comment }